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So after three grueling weeks of watching the Bears win, and other teams hold a knife to our throats and threaten to cut us out of the playoffs, we are still in. We could not have had a better week last week. Everything, and I mean everything, went our way. Which is ironic, because the week before, almost everything went against us aside from us beating the Saints.

This week when the Chicago Bears kick off against the Houston Texans nothing will be decided yet, so the Bears will be playing virtually the whole time for a golden ticket into the playoffs. Here is what they have to have for them to get in IF they win (and that is a big if):

For the Division:
1. Minnesota loss. If this happens the other scenarios don’t matter because the Bears will have won the division.

For a Wildcard:
1. Tampa Bay loss to Oakland. Who knows, its the NFL.
2. Dallas loss to Philadelphia. This is much more likely.

Decatur Nate

I started to write this post in the theme of the song, you know “On the first day of Christmas…” but that was way too cheesy and dumb. So here it is in simple numerical form.

1. One more home win. Wouldn’t we all love to beat the Packers on the last home game of the year.
2. Two Vikings losses. We need this to get into the playoffs.
3. Three decent wide receivers. We only have one right now.
4. Four big runs by Matt Forte against the Packers and the Texans. A lot of small decent runs, but four runs of 15 yards or more, and I think we win both those games.
5. Five losses by NFC teams ahead of us in the Wildcard race (this is if we don’t get #2 on the list). 2 by Tampa Bay, 2 by Dallas, and 1 by Philadelphia.
6. Six Turnovers in the next 2 games. Chicago Bears football.
7. Seven points by our defense against the Texans. We need them to score against Houston to give us some help mentally in that game.
8. Eight good consistent quarters of football. This team has played consistently for only a couple games this whole year on offense and defense. Just give us eight more.
9. Nine plays by Ron Turner that the defenses won’t expect. This would truly be a Christmas miracle.
10. Ten catches over the next 2 games for our Tight Ends. When they catch the ball a lot, we win. Simple as that.
11. Eleven on the Amp. This one goes to eleven.
12. Twelve Brett Farve interceptions. This has nothing to do with the Bears playoff hopes, or the Bears at all for that matter, but wouldn’t it be awesome to see Brett Farve throw 12 INTs.

Decatur Nate

Ok, in the previous post we broke down the Bears playoff situation and it wasn’t too great. Well, last week, it got even worse. We will break it down again.

Essentially the only chance the Bears have of getting into the playoffs is if they win both remaining games, and the Vikings lose both remaining games.

The wildcard situation is virtually impossible to overcome now. Philly has a a better record by virtue of a tie being better than a loss. So they are in front of us and they still have to play Dallas, who is also in front of us. Here are the schedules of the teams that are in front of us both in schedule AND tiebreaker scenarios.

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) - has left -Minnesota (9-5), vs. St. Louis (2-12)
Tampa Bay (9-5) - has left - San Diego (6-8) vs. Oakland (3-11)
Dallas (9-5) - has left - Baltimore (9-5), at Philadelphia (8-5-1)
Philadelphia (8-5-1) - has left - Washington (7-7), vs. Dallas (9-5)

Basically 3 of those teams HAVE to lose out, and the Bears have to win out for us to get in. Atlanta is NOT going to lose to St. Louis, Tampa Bay is NOT going to lose to Oakland.

Here is what would have to hope for in a miracle situation for us to get a Wildcard:
Tampa Bay or Atlanta loses to one of their opponents this week, we would like for it to be Tampa Bay since Atlanta is playing Minnesota, so lets say TB. Tampa Bay loses to San Diego, and then by a Christmas Miracle they lose to Oakland as well. Then Dallas loses to Baltimore, Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson break up, TO and Jason Witten get into a fight, and they end up losing to Philly. The previous week however Philly lost to Washington for some strange reason, and vuala(spelling ?), we are in. Of course that is because we beat both Green Bay and Houston.

Here is what that looks like record wise:
Atlanta - (11 - 5)
Chicago - (10-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Dallas (9-7)
Philadelpha (9-6-1)

I doubt all that is going to happen, and this scenario is more likely:
Vikings lose to both Atlanta and New York because Pat Williams is out and they have the #1 & #2 rushing offenses in the NFL. Then of course, like the scenario above, we win out.

That puts the division as follows:
Bears (10-6)
Vikings (9-7)
Packers (5-11) HAHA
Lions (0-16) wow

Any way you slice it, the Bears need help.

- Decatur Nate

These are pretty crazy so I will try to make them as simple as possible. Here are the criteria for tiebreakers if they end up with the same record as teams they are battling against for a playoff spot:
TIEBREAKERS
1. Head-to-head
2. Best winning percentage in conference games
3. Best winning percentage in common games (minimum four)
4. Strength of victory

The first 2 are based on the Chicago Bears winning the division outright. The rest are based on us getting in as a wildcard.

1. This is the best and most likely scenario considering the Vikings difficult next 3 games starting today with the Arizona Cardinals, next Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, and in the final week against the New York Giants. Here it is: The Vikings lose 2 out of the next 3 games, and we win both of the next 2 games. Chicago has to beat the Packers and the Texans in that case. This has to make Bears fans squirm a little bit because the Pack spanked the Bears the last time they met at Lambeau Field, and the Texans are fairly hot right now.

2. The Vikings lose all three remaining games, AND the Bears win one of the next 2 games against the Packers, and the Texans. This would make things a whole lot easier if the Vikings would go ahead and lose all three.

3. Here is the first of many wildcard scenarios. We will start with teams that are ahead of the Bears in the wildcard race. Tampa Bay - the Bucs need to all 3 and the Bears need to win all 3 because the Bucs have a better record in the conference (tiebreaker #2). So again, Bucs lose all 3 remaining games, and the Bears win the remaining 2. This one is highly unlikely, so lets hope the Bears get the 2nd wildcard spot. Tampa Bay has remaining: at Atlanta (8-5), vs. San Diego (5-8) vs. Oakland (3-10)

3. The Cowboys - The Cowboys currently have a better record then the Bears, and a better conference record, but both of those could change. The Bears could still beat out the Cowboys if the Cowboys if they lose to Philly, and New York which would give them a worse conference record if the Bears beat the Packers. Dallas has remaining: vs. NY Giants (11-2), vs. Baltimore (9-4), at Philadelphia (7-5-1)

4. This one still involves the Cowboys. If the Cowboys lose all three remaining games and the Bears win at least one more game. The Bears would likely still have to win both remaining games based on all the other teams that are vying for the Wildcard.

5. The Falcons - the Falcons hold the tiebreaker (#1) over us because of the game we do not speak of that happened earlier this year. So if the Bears need the Falcons to lose two out of their three remaining games. If the Bears do not win the NFC North, they will be rooting for Minnesota next week against the Falcons. However it would be best if the stadium just collapsed in that one because it is nearly impossible for me to root for the Vikings.
Atlanta has remaining: vs. Tampa Bay (9-4), at Minnesota (8-5), vs. St. Louis (2-11)

6. The Falcons lose all three remaining games. This is unlikely because they play St. Louis in the final week.

7. The Eagles - If the Eagles lose just one of their remaining 3 games they will finish at 9-5-1. If this happens the Bears would have to win both remaining games.
Philadelphia has remaining: vs. Cleveland (4-9), at Washington (7-6), vs. Dallas (8-5)

8. For the sake of maintaining my ten point list I will combine the next 2 that both still involve Philly. If the Eagles lose 2 of their remaining games and we win both, or if they lose all 3 and we win one or two of our remaining games.

9. The Redskins - We currently have a half game lead on the Redskins, and will either be tied with them or have a one game lead depending on what happens today against Cincinnati. Since they will probably win that game we will assume they are tied with us. If they win out and end up with the same record as we have then they will have an advantage because they will have a better conference record.
Washington has remaining: at Cincinnati (1-11-1), vs. Philadelphia (7-5-1), vs. San Francisco (5-8)

10. If the Redskins lose to any of the remaining teams and we win out, if they lose two and we win at least one more, and finally if they lose all three.

Sunday’s Bears game was one of the worst Bears Packers games in recent history. For Bears fans that is. I guess we know how they felt last year when we demolished them late in the year at Soldier field.

The Bears DO have a chance to get their D back on track, and lift their confidence for a second half of the season run though. They play the Rams, the Vikes, and the Jags over the next 3 weeks.

Let’s hope they can rebound and forget this one.

Normally I would have a list of keys to beating the Packers. Not this time. This time there is only 1 key. Thats right, just 1.

Adjust.

We have been horrible all year at making adjustments. Really only on defense. We have said it time and time again, but Ron Turner with Neckbeard at QB looks like a different offensive coordinator. We kind understand why now. Orton is the better QB. Enough about that, back to adjust. We fail to make adjustments on defense, and this is how: When teams run slants on us and quick 3 step drops, we continue to crowd the line with our linebackers, then drop 2 of them back, and blitz 1. We continue to play off of the receivers way to far allowing mediocre QBs to have career days on us by throwing quickly to open men who are running slats, quick outs, etc. We continue to only blitz with safeties and corners only a couple times a game.

So how do we need to adjust?

1. We need to let Brian Urlacher be Brian Urlacher again. Let him sit back in the cover to, read the play, and react. He is best when he can see whats going on and make a play on it. He is not the same player when he has to crowd the line every time, then retreat 10-15 yards and get there too late to make a play on a pass.

2. Play more bump and run coverage with our corners. We have not gotten very good pressure with the front 4 this year. At first glance it looks like they are not doing well, and this is partially true. However, this is also because quarterbacks are throwing so quickly that they don’t even have time to get pressure on him. If we bump the receivers, this gives our linemen a second or two more to get pressure on the QB.

3. Blitz more with corners and safeties, and less with the linebackers. Teams are seeing that it is mainly our linebackers that are blitzing, and they are doing well against this. If we blitz more with corners and safeties, then we bring pressure from the outside, and this has proven to work. Do it more, and force the offense to adjust. They will have to adjust by trying to run the ball more, take double teams away from Tommie Harris, and force them to try to block the blitzing corners. On third and long, bring the house. Bring A couple of linebackers, and a corner. They will have to make quick decisions to throw and not be able to sit back there and wait until their receiver has run a long route then eat a sandwich, take a nap, and finally throw to a wide open receiver.

If we make adjustments like these, our defense will get back to looking like they did in years past. If they don’t, look for more of the same. Stopping the run, but allowing QBs to drop record numbers on us.
Let’s hope they make some of these adjustments when they play the Pack.

GO BEARS!!!

- D. Nate

Finally the Bears let you embed their “propaganda, bore-you-to-death” videos. Here is Kyle Orton talking about his injury.

The Chicago Bears team that I saw versus the Minnesota Vikings, and the team that I have recently seen, is not the Chicago Bears that I have known in my time. The Bears that I know have staggering, dominant defense, with a killer defensive line, and a knack for making big time plays in big time situations. Their achilles heal is when they come up against a good defensive team that forces the Bears defense to stay on the field for a large part of the game. The Bears I know struggle in the passing game, but run the ball with little imagination to grind out 17 or so points a game with emphasis on no turnovers that put the defense in tough situations.

Does this strike a chord with anyone else? The Bears that are starting to emerge recently are a team that has a less than average running attack, and a defense that struggles to come up with stops, even in very seemingly manageable situations.

However, they are starting to be a team that is very confident(and with good reason) in the passing game, putting up 300+ passing yards with apparent ease, and having the ability to put up 35 points a game. Their quarterback play has been more than consistent, it has been the stalwart of the team, and they are getting it done with patchwork offensive line and receiving corps help. I don’t know what to think when I see these new Bears, but I gotta say, I like what I see.

Why? You may ask. Well, the reason is that this organization has always struggled to find personnel offensively, ESPECIALLY at the quarterback position. Defensively, I have faith that they can get things turned around. I know there are still question marks, but the answers that are starting to form are ones that I think will produce for even as long as years to come.

Bearsaddict

It seem that the Bears have a clear advantage against defenses when they run the double tight end formation with Olson and Clark:

“When throwing with two tight ends on the field, Orton is 29-for-44 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. His passer rating is 113 and he’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, both well above his overall numbers.”
- That from a Chicago Sun Times article by Brad Biggs.

In fact, I did some more research and found out that combined Olson and Clark have 39 receptions between the two of them. There is only 1 team that has more receptions from the TE position - Dallas. Jason Witten has 45 receptions by himself (that is pretty sick). The closest team behind the Bears is New Orleans who has Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller. They pass almost every down and the Bears still have more production from the TE position.

Look for the Bears to use more of the 2 TE formation, and look for them to continue to dominate teams with their TEs. The number of receptions between Olson and Clark has increased steadily throughout the year. Here are the numbers:

Bears vs. Colts: TEs - 4rec (Olson 2, Clark 2)
Bears vs Carol: TEs - 4rec (Olson 2, Clark 2)
Bears vs Bucs: TEs - 4rec (Olson 2, Clark 2)
Bears vs Eagles:TEs - 5rec (Olson 4, Clark 1)
Bears vs Lions: TEs - 5rec (Olson 3, Clark 2)
Bears vs Falcons:TEs - 8rec(Olson 3, Clark 5)
Bears vs Vikes: TEs - 9rec (Olson 6, Clark 3)

This means the Bears are using this a little bit more each game, and Orton is getting more and more comfortable throwing to them. It is great to see him get comfortable with our TE weapons. Olson’s size speed combo, and Clark’s size provide difficult match-ups for linebackers and DBs who try to cover them.

What would be really interesting is to see how Kellen Davis would fair out there. My feeling is that the Bears don’t really need him right now based on the production they continue to get from Clark, along with Clark’s ability to block well. He will be a great weapon in the future though.

- Decatur Nate

The Chicago Bears won against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday at Soldier field mostly throwing the ball.

It wasn’t with their stifling D, it wasn’t through their battering running game either. In fact neither of those parts of the Chicago Bears showed up. Instead it was on the arm of Neckbeard himself Kyle Orton.

Orton threw for 283 yards, and completed 65% of his passes. He also threw for 2 TDs and had a 112 passer rating. All against one of the best defenses in the league.

Orton continues to look better for Chicago and he is doing it with enthusiasm. It seems that Ron Turner is opening up the playbook with Orton like he never did with Rex, or Griese. He is more creative and he trusts Orton to put the game on his shoulders. In fact the “Get off the bus running” Bears threw almost 63% of the time against Minnesota and won the game because they were aggressive and not because they played typical ball control offense.

They knew that with their secondary decimated and with Minnesota strong in stopping the run, they were going to have to trust Neckbeard, and they did.

One of the best things to see out of Orton is the consistency he is playing with. He is starting to put together full games of good play, and when he does have a bad half, he at least plays one good half. He is starting to make Chicago have a glimmer of hope that they might have a decent QB.

- Decatur Nate